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 Tracking 1050 U.S. listed China Stocks and Counting...
 Tracking 1535 U.S. Stocks and Counting...

China Agri-Business, Inc., through its operating company in China, Shaanxi Xin Sheng Centennial Agriculture and Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells non-toxic fertilizer, bactericide and fungicide products used for farming in China. Crops grown with Xinsheng's products are eligible to qualify for the 'AA Green Food' rating administered by the China Green Food Development Center, an agency under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China (However, our products themselves do not bear the 'AA green food' designation). The green food rating system, which consist of an 'A' rating and a more stringent 'AA' rating. The 'AA' rating indicates that the crops contain minimal chemical residue from fertilizers.

The Company's two primary product groups are organic fungicides (Xinsheng Luyuan brand) and bactericides (Xinsheng Lufeng brand). The Company has a total of five brands and produces more than 50 different proprietary applications, including products designed to stimulate plant growth, condition soil, and prevent and cure plant diseases and parasites. The Company has products for a variety of crops, including potatoes, vegetables, cotton and fruit plants, and orchard trees. The products can be used either alone or to supplement other products. The Company Xinsheng's manufacturing facilities are located in Xian, Shaanxi Province, China.

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Sticky6360 Addfavorites CHBU
 

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Public11105 Addfavorites CHBU
 

I really don't know!

Public11029 Addfavorites CHBU
 

hey dutch,do  you know if CHBU is legit? their website has been down for a month or so.

Public3521 Addfavorites CHBU
 

Hey Dutch,

I used two approaches here:

1. The easy approach was just to take historical margins and apply to sales forecast.

2. I had also used another approach using sales forecast based on a revenue per new store added approach. This is more difficult, since they have two store models: direct and franchised. You need to figure out average revenue and margins for each approach.  When i used this model I came up with about $.05 to $.07 per qtr. At the time the company insinuated this may be too aggressive, but maybe not.
The wild card was estimating the marketing expense to launch the new model.

3. Another approach i like to use for the top line forecast is find relationship between qtr sales and full year sales. Once the first qtr is reported you can try and model a base revenue forecast and adjust due to expansion plans or other external factors. (See note on CKGT for this approach. 2nd qtr Sales came in at low end of my range which is why EPS did not match my forecast. ).  http://geoinvesting.com/companies/ckgt_china_kangtai_cactus_bio/research/geospecial_notes/0024971


These are all just starting points before further analysis should begin.

 

Public3489 Addfavorites CHBU
 

Geo was exactly right with their 0.05 projection, congrats.

Which formula you used?

 I am now learning from the book:

Investment Banking, Valuation, LBO's and M&A from Joshua Rosenbaum and Joshua Pearl. So I hope I can give better valuations and predictions in the future.

 

 

Public2505 Addfavorites CHBU
 
Last Friday April 15 they released their annual report.

http://idc.api.edgar-online.com/efx_dll/edgarpro.dll?FetchFilingConvPDF1?SessionID=pYQuH82U68RjWjS&ID=7187791

Earnings per share were $ 0.08 so they earned the last quarter $ 0.03 compared to the $ 0.05 (nine months). Book value per share was $ 0.79 while their cash position per share increased to $ 0.74.

Some other highlights from their Form 10-K:

As of December 31, 2009, the company had established 103 branded super chain stores. A majority of these stores are located in the Shaanxi and Hunan Provinces. In addition, they established 49 direct sales stores, which are controlled and managed directly by the company. The direct sales stores are located in the Shaanxi Province.

At some future time, we may seek to have our common stock or other securities quoted on a tier of a national securities exchange. In so doing, we will reevaluate the need to have independent directors on our board and on standing committees, in light of applicable corporate governance rules and corporate best practices. At the present time, our board of directors is collectively responsible for analyzing and evaluatingour financial statements and our internal controls and procedures for financial reporting, and for acting as our compensation and nominating
committee.

Especially the following Sales and Marketing part I found interesting:

We have traditionally sold our products through wholesale and retail distributors. In order to market our products, we advertise in newspapers, including national publications. We have also utilized a limited amount of television advertising, and distributed brochures, company profiles and promotional videos to farmers. We also offer free field trials to potential customers for the purpose of comparing plantings that have applied our products to plantings that have not. We believe that potential customers are more inclined to purchase our products after seeing the
comparison results. We have a marketing team comprised of approximately 57 people who demonstrate to our dealers and our direct customers the correct methods of using our products, and who help address issues that arise for our dealers and customers in using our products and collect feedback from them.

As of December 31, 2009, we have established relationships with approximately 90 wholesale distributors. Our products are sold in approximately 503 stores located in 12 provinces in the PRC. During 2008 we launched a new sales and marketing initiative “New Agriculture-Generator” designed to expand our distribution network
directly in the rural areas of China. The purpose of the campaign is to establish a closer relationship with farmers through agricultural cooperatives located throughout the rural areas of China. One component of this initiative is the “Super Chain Sales Partner Program.”
The “Super Chain Sales Partner Program” is an initiative whereby the Company agrees to provide a $3,000 advance payment to participating retailers in exchange for their commitment to purchase and sell approximately $14,000 worth of the Company’s products per year. Each participating retailer must also agree not to sell any competing products. As of December 31, 2009, approximately 61 retailers in Shaanxi
province and approximately 42 retailers in Hunan province have participated in the “Super Chain Sales Partner Program”.

Another component of this initiative is to establish, in conjunction with participating retailers, a membership system that would enable the Company to measure and monitor the use of its products by farmers and to improve the Company’s efforts to provide training and other support services to farmers.
In addition, the Company has established 49 direct sales stores which are controlled and managed directly by the Company. The direct sales stores are located in the Shaanxi Province. We anticipate continuing to focus our efforts on establishing direct sales stores in 2010. From the beginning of the year to March 31, 2010, we opened approximately 200 new direct sales stores in the Shaanxi and Hunan Provinces.

Despite the growth of these initiatives, there can be no assurance that the “New Agriculture-Generator” campaign, including the “Super Chain Sales Partner Program” or direct sales stores program, will be successful.

I really believe this company has set a clear growth path. My predictions of an EPS in 2010 of $ 0.12 are too conservative so I revise them to $ 0.15.
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