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During the 3rd quarter results conference call, a caller mentioned that Clearwater Paper (CLW) may issue a secondary to possibly expand into Orchids' territory. Wouldn't it be better for a company like CLW to buy a company like TIS, with the facilities they need, rather than build what they need? TIS is hopefully on-track with their new warehouse and equipment to be operational by the 3rd quarter of 2010. Buying TIS now with its upgrades would probably be cheaper in the long run. Also, the 5.1% purchase of TIS shares a few months ago by a brokerage firm at almost the high for the year, as reported to the SEC, increases the possibility odds that someone is interested. Flat to down earnings until the 3rd quarter of 2010 are putting a damper on the stock price. It looks like the stock will reach $18 today (11/9) and maybe breakout of its 200-day average range soon. For the first time in a long time, 1,050 shares were bought at $17.60 before the market opened. That's a good sign. Eventually the almost 300,000 short sales out there will start to be covered at higher prices as earnings improve late in 2010, but for now things will just bob up and down in shallow water. But then, what do I know!

Ever since Orchids Paper Products (TIS) issued their secondary offering, the stock has plummented about 30% from a high of $22.98, just before the offering, to below $17 this past week. Earnings reported this week were as predicted, .52 per share. The low for the stock this year (March) was $6.40. Looking at Clearwater Paper (CLW), I see similarities in price movements this year. CLW had a low below $6 and a high of $50 last week, or more than double TIS's high. The possibility of a stock offering by CLW is hinted by the company. I'm beginning to hopefully wonder if TIS is a takeover candidate. An SEC filing in October showed that a 5.1% stake was taken by a brokerage firm that amounted to about 300,000 shares. There was a 300,000 trade in TIS on the day they announced the secondary price setting of $18.50. Right now this is just wishful thinking but after the beating the stock has taken since the offering, one tends to look for any signs of good news. What I find disturbing, however, is the almost 300,000 short-interest in the stock. So on one hand I see 300,000 shares being bought by an investor and 300,000 shares being sold as part of short sales over the past few months. If the short sale figure drops and the stock rises because of the so-called, "squeeze", I might be looking for some sort of announcement or just enjoy the move! If nothing changes and the stock is still flopping around, then it will be many months before we see any kind of 2009 action again. Does anyone see a takeover as a possibility by a larger paper company or investment firm?