China Agri-Business, Inc., through its operating company in China, Shaanxi Xin Sheng Centennial Agriculture and Technology Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells non-toxic fertilizer, bactericide and fungicide products used for farming in China. Crops grown with Xinsheng's products are eligible to qualify for the 'AA Green Food' rating administered by the China Green Food Development Center, an agency under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Agriculture of the People's Republic of China (However, our products themselves do not bear the 'AA green food' designation). The green food rating system, which consist of an 'A' rating and a more stringent 'AA' rating. The 'AA' rating indicates that the crops contain minimal chemical residue from fertilizers.
The Company's two primary product groups are organic fungicides (Xinsheng Luyuan brand) and bactericides (Xinsheng Lufeng brand). The Company has a total of five brands and produces more than 50 different proprietary applications, including products designed to stimulate plant growth, condition soil, and prevent and cure plant diseases and parasites. The Company has products for a variety of crops, including potatoes, vegetables, cotton and fruit plants, and orchard trees. The products can be used either alone or to supplement other products. The Company Xinsheng's manufacturing facilities are located in Xian, Shaanxi Province, China.
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whitetiger 18-Aug-2010 10:25 AM
Post Type:
Public

Hey Dutch,I used two approaches here:1. The easy approach was just to take historical marg... (#3521)
In Response to original message: #3489 posted by on 17-Aug-2010 10:46 AM
Hey Dutch,
I used two approaches here:
1. The easy approach was just to take historical margins and apply to sales forecast.
2. I had also used another approach using sales forecast based on a revenue per new store added approach. This is more difficult, since they have two store models: direct and franchised. You need to figure out average revenue and margins for each approach. When i used this model I came up with about $.05 to $.07 per qtr. At the time the company insinuated this may be too aggressive, but maybe not.
The wild card was estimating the marketing expense to launch the new model.
3. Another approach i like to use for the top line forecast is find relationship between qtr sales and full year sales. Once the first qtr is reported you can try and model a base revenue forecast and adjust due to expansion plans or other external factors. (See note on CKGT for this approach. 2nd qtr Sales came in at low end of my range which is why EPS did not match my forecast. ). http://geoinvesting.com/companies/ckgt_china_kangtai_cactus_bio/research/geospecial_notes/0024971
These are all just starting points before further analysis should begin.