CKGT removed from the GeoSpecial on the Radar list.
Our intent over the short-term is to build a check list to assess the risk position of firms in the ChinaHybrid space. For the time being this will consist of the following: (this list is likely to grow substantially)
-Is the company's auditor ranked in the top 100?-Is the auditor located in the U.S.A? If located in China the PCAOB (Public Company Oversight Board) may be denied access to investigate the practices of the auditing firm. Short sellers have been using this information as a tool to validate their opinions. -Are the company's internal controls satisfactory?-Are their any outstanding legal issues?-Do the company's top ten customers represent less than 10% of revenues? - Operating cash flow divided by current liabilities is greater than one. The higher the better.
- Cash divided by current liabilities. This is an the most conservative liquidity ratio. The higher the better
- Is the company buying back stock?- Chinese filings match respective SEC filings.(In process)
Short term and risk adverse investors should be aware of the quality issues currently present in the ChinaHybrid Space, questioning the validity of what seem like solid fundamental stories. It is beginning to get ugly so be cautious and understand that more pain may have to be endured, as ChinaHybrids are easy prey for short investors. The broad brush that is being applied to theses stocks appears unfair, but we can’t ignore the psychological impact this can have on investors’ portfolio decisions. If history is our guide, fear will eventually create an immense opportunity to invest in the companies that prove they can meet quality litmus tests enact shareholder friendly moves. Credibility can also be restored if independent legal/SEC opinions validate accounting practices currently in question.
We have yet to verify if the Chinese filings for ChinaHybrid stocks we monitor match respective SEC filings. We are in the process of completing this task. Conservative investors may want to limit exposure or buy put options on stocks, that have this availability, as insurance against long positions, until we publish our findings. Odds are we will identify some promising companies that will fail this litmus test.
Recall from our research comments on August 14. 2009:
"While we are not particularly impressed with China Kangtai's second quarter earnings per share growth rate of 6%, the stock is selling at a discount to book with a trailing P/E of 3.7, prompting us to code CKGT as a GeoSpecial at $0.95 per share based on Repricing of Risk Premium. Achieving a price above book should require an acceleration in its earnings per share growth rate."
Closer inspection of the second quarter financial statements possibly indicate that non-GAAP EPS may have actually increased significantly more that the 6% we had originally calculated. It now appears that 2009 first quarter non-GAAP EPS may have increased 40.0% ($0.07 vs. $0.05).
The GeoTeam® is still verifying its findings with China Kangtai Cactus management. We also need to attain a better grasp of second half growth opportunities.
Nutrceutical
biocactus.com